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WARSAW — Poland is heading towards a recession, its foreign money is dropping worth and inflation is among the many highest within the EU, however the head of the nation’s central financial institution has different considerations.
The hazard for Poland lurks in Berlin and Brussels, Adam Glapiński warned in an interview with the right-wing Gazeta Polska printed Wednesday.
Germany is aiming “for the recovery in some form of their former lands, which are now within Poland’s borders, and the subjugation of this entire belt of countries between Germany and Russia,” mentioned Glapiński, referring to the territorial settlement after World War II that noticed some jap German territories handed over to Poland. The border shift has lengthy been accepted by German governments.
He warned that Berlin’s designs are being pushed by Donald Tusk, the leader of Civic Platform, Poland’s principal opposition get together, and a former Polish prime minister and president of the European Council.
“For a year it’s been said that the task set by Brussels for Tusk is not only for him to overthrow Poland’s existing government and put our country on course for the eurozone,” Glapiński mentioned. “Once these tasks are accomplished, Tusk is to return to Brussels, become head of the European Commission and pursue an accelerated effort to build a European state.”
It’s all a part of a broader scheme by Berlin to exert management over the Continent, warned Glapiński, a detailed pal of Poland’s de facto chief Jarosław Kaczyński and head of the National Bank of Poland since 2016. In an earlier interview, Glapiński mentioned: “Tusk was sent with a plan to incorporate Poland into the German European empire.”
Tusk is not any fan of Glapiński, and has vowed that if the opposition wins the following election Glapiński can be out of a job, saying he was improperly named to a second five-year time period earlier this 12 months.
“Adam Glapiński is not only incompetent. Adam Glapiński is not only indecent in what he does. Adam Glapiński is also illegal,” Tusk told a celebration rally final month.
But for now Glapiński is firmly in command of the National Bank of Poland and he alleges that the European Commission is in cahoots with Germany and performing in opposition to Poland’s nationalist authorities led by Kaczyński’s Law and Justice (PiS) get together. Glapiński says that is why the EU is not paying out €35 billion in loans and grants below the bloc’s pandemic recovery fund.
Brussels says that to get the cash, Poland has to meet agreed “milestones” and undo adjustments to the courtroom system that have been seen as bringing it below political management, however Glapiński and PiS backers argue the Commission is enjoying politics.
The EU “wants to give this money to the next government,” the central banker mentioned.
What’s particularly annoying Brussels and Berlin is that Poland is so successful story, he added.
“Having a sovereign central bank, our own money — the złoty — and our dynamic economic development is what most annoys them,” Glapiński mentioned. Poland agreed to undertake the widespread foreign money when it joined the EU in 2004, however the present authorities desires to stay with the złoty.
Slowing financial system
The newest numbers recommend Poland’s financial system is something however dynamic.
Poland’s statistical company reported Wednesday that GDP expanded at an annual fee of 5.2 % within the second quarter of this 12 months, down from 8.5 % within the first quarter. A 2.3 % quarter-on-quarter contraction places Poland on the backside of the heap of EU economies, according to Eurostat.
“Economic activity is slowing. Maybe it’s not yet an emergency, but there is perceptibly slower growth,” wrote Zbigniew Maciąg, chief economist of the Lewiatan employers’ confederation.
The information despatched the złoty decrease in opposition to the greenback and the euro. The Polish foreign money has fallen by 14 % in opposition to the greenback thus far this 12 months and by 3 % in opposition to the euro.
Maciąg predicted that the financial system would proceed to sluggish, which presents issues for the central financial institution. It was late to begin mountaineering rates of interest when inflation started to take off final 12 months; the financial institution’s benchmark fee is 6.5 % whereas annual inflation got here to fifteen.5 % in July.
But the unexpectedly sharp development slowdown means any additional enhance in rates of interest might deepen a recession.
“All this means that it is becoming increasingly difficult to count on further rate hikes in Poland,” Piotr Popławski, an economist with Poland’s ING Bank Śląski, told the Polish Press Agency.
The lack of billions of euros from the EU, a slowing financial system and excessive inflation all pose potential difficulties for PiS because the get together prepares for subsequent 12 months’s parliamentary election.
With Brussels and Berlin growing the strain on Warsaw, the stakes are monumental, Glapiński mentioned.
“We have to persevere, we have to win, we have to maintain the złoty, we have to maintain a patriotic government, so that in 10 years we can sit down at the table with the Germans, the French, the Italians and every other country, as equals,” he mentioned.
The central financial institution didn’t reply to a request for touch upon Glapiński’s interview, which it has published on its internet web page.
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